KERLI - adult female, Pärnu County

[marika.solo]

AI - chat Gemini

Here is a summary of the weather conditions for the final leg of her journey from Africa back to the nesting site, specifically for the stretch between Latvia and Estonia:

Final Migration Stage: Weather Summary

_ Current Conditions: The weather in the Pärnu region is partly sunny with a temperature of 8°C (feeling like 5°C). While chilly, the lack
of precipitation is ideal for long-distance flight.

- Wind Factor: She is facing an easterly wind at approximately 11 mph (18 km/h). Since she is heading North-West, this acts as a slight crosswind. While not a direct tailwind to boost her speed, it is far more manageable than the strong headwind that delayed her yesterday.

- Visibility & Thermals: The clear, sunny skies are crucial. They provide the necessary visibility for navigation and help create thermal updrafts, allowing her to soar and conserve energy during these final 160–180 kilometers.

- Operational Outlook: Given that black storks can travel at speeds of 30 km/h or more, she only needs about 6 hours of active flying to reach the nest.

Conclusion
The "hormonal drive" you mentioned, combined with the low probability of precipitation (5%) and the break in the previous bad weather, creates a perfect window. Despite the cold air, the conditions are stable enough for her to complete this final sprint and occupy the nest before sunset.

Key takeaway: After the recent delays, today's weather acts as a "green light" for her return.

[marika.solo]

Kerli covered 194 km today but decided to settle for the night right at the Estonian border. She is likely resting after a long flight in chilly conditions. The final sprint to the nest will happen presumably tomorrow morning - it is already only about 60 km as the stork flies.!

(160–180 kilometres - falce calculation by AI geminin chat )

[marika.solo]

April 19
Hello everyone

Dzērves purvs - Aloja parish, Limbaži Municipality, Latvia





https://www.daba.gov.lv/lv/dzerves-purvs
PHOTO https://www.daba.gov.lv/sites/daba/file ... k=5vEjGAP-

wiki: Dzērve Mire is a nature reserve in Aloja parish, Limbazi region and Staicele parish. Part of the North Vidzeme Biosphere Reserve. The reserve is a raised bog with a cage of small-meldra (Trichophorum cespitosum) stands, surrounded by a swampy pine forest. It is bordered by the Iģe valley, where sandstone outcrops are found. In the territory there is a small eagle, a ruble, a hazel groin, a swamp, a hurricane, a fish chaff, a black woodpecker and a gray woodpecker.


uploded by Valdis Rapss on 21 Apr 2025

[marika.solo]

Kerli is approx 80 km away from her nest (as the crow fly).

If Kerli managed to find food at her roosting site (Dzērves purvs) despite the freezing morning (-3°C), she could arrive at the nest between 14:00 and 16:00 Estonian = camera time.
​​Since the morning was frosty and hunting was likely difficult, she probably skipped breakfast and stopped to feed somewhere along the route once the sun warmed the waters. In this case, her arrival at the nest is more likely between 17:00 and 18:00.

Will see - fingers crossed, safe fly!